On Deck Circle

What Sabermetrics Are: Sabermermetrics are advanced stats that measure players more accurately than standard stats. Per say a hitter in Petco Parck hits a ball to the warning track it would be an out most likely but in most other stadiums that ball would be long gone. Sabermetrics would credit the player a home run.

BABIP: Batting Average Balls In Play. This stat show what percentage of the time a runner gets on base when they hit the ball into play. Let’s be serious if two inches is the difference between getting a hit or being out you can’t control whether you get the hit. It sows how lucky the hitter or pitcher is. This stat is a base for most other Sabermetrics.

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. I think FIP is the better version of E.R.A.. It shows what a pitcher’sq true E.R.A. should be using BABIP.

xFIP: Expected Fieliding Independent Pitching. This is the same as FIP except it replaces their home run rate with the league average rate so someone in Petco could be just as good as someone at Coors. I prefer this stat over FIP.

Woba: Weighted On Base Average. This Sabermetric is like OBP but it make walks less valuable than singles and homers more valueable than triples and all of things similar to that.

WAR: Wins Above Replacement. WAR is a ranking stat. It shows how many wins a player earned for his team over a year.

ISO: Isolated Power. This Sabermetric shows how much power a player has. It is SLG-AVG, so if you have a high slugging but low average (Adam Dunn) you would have a lot of isolated power.

Clutch: Clutch shows how clutch a player is. It compares a player to themself in different scenarios. If you are like “they only bat .280 in clutch spots.” What if he only bats .210. He is more clutch than someone who bats .330 in clutch spots but otherwise bats .340.

ASC: Advanced Statistics Combined. The name says it all. It is a ranking stat that is quite accurate. I created this stat myself.

xFIO: Expected Fielding Independent Offense. This stat is similar to xFIP but is for offense instead of pitching. I created this stat with the help of a few other people.

You can find all these stats (except xFIO and ASC) and their league leaders on fangraphs.com

Mar 18

Five Trades Still On The Table

1. Gerardo Parra (Ari) for Leonys Martins (Tex), Mike Olt, and a PTBNL
This trade would give the Rangers a top defensive outfielder who has some offensive pop in his bat and the move would allow Josh Hamilton to move to center shoring their outfield up and keeping a great defense in the outfield. They would also only part with prospects who would be blocked too. Meanwhile the D-Backs would be getting two top prospects one of who could take left field over after Kubel and the other could do the same who Roberts. They would also not have the problem of too many good outfielders.

2. Matt Garza (ChC) for J.P. Arencibia (Tor), Kyle Drabek, Deck McGuire, and Daniel Norris
This would give the Cubs some coveted pitching prospects that they desperately need along with a young catcher who could make Geovany Soto excellent trade bait. The Jays would get a ace pitcher who is a great pitcher if you follow Sabermetrics and a pitcher who has been able to prove himself in the AL East .The Jays would now be one step closer to competing in the AL East. The Jays would have a 1-2 punch that could compete against their division rivals.

John Lannan has started Opening Day for the Nats two out of the last three years. Now he sadly sees himself as trade bait after being forced out of the rotation thanks to offseason moves giving the Nationals Edwin Jackson and Gio Gonzalez..The Nats now need to replenish the farm after trading a good bit of it away acquiring Gonzalez. The Sox would love someone of Lannan’s talent to be their 5th or 4th starter giving someone like Alfredo Aceves the chance to go back to the ‘pen.

The White Sox have THE worst farm system in baseball according to ESPN. They use a top prospect like Turner. It is unlikely they will be in contention next year so why not trade Floyd? The Tigers need one more starter to have a complete rotation filled with veterans entering their prime who will all be great.

The Rays have an extra starter and a terrible shortstop while in L.A. there is a need for a starter and not a need for a shortstop. Aybar is a perennial Gold Glove winner who would fit perfectly with the Rays top defense. His offensive potential was also not being reached with the Angels. The Angels would have a top rotation once they got Niemann and they would have a short term replacement while Jean Segura is waiting to become a MLB starter.

Mar 14

MLB Realignment and what it would look like.

Everyone knows that MLB has problems with the schedules, division, playoffs; I could go on and on, but I won’t. I have a plan that would fix all MLB has done that is wrong. My plan would hopefully fix all that. Here is my plan:

There will be six new divisions to make traveling easier, and two leagues: East and West. Each league will have three divisions. The East divisions will be North East, (consisting of the Red Sox, Yankees, Mets, Blue Jays, and Tigers), Mid-East, (Phillies, Reds, Indians, Brewers, and Pirates), and South East (Rays, Marlins, Braves, Orioles, and Nationals). The West divisions will be Mid-West (Cardinals, Royals, Cubs, White Sox, and Twins), South West (Rangers, Astros, Padres, Diamondbacks, and Rockies), and West (Mariners, Athletics, Giants, Angels, and Dodgers). The only major rivalry that will be broken up with my plan will be the Phillies-Mets rivalry, but many new rivalries will be born.

The two division winners with the best records will make the playoffs; the third will not be guaranteed a spot. Instead, the best two remaining teams (one could be the third division winner) will advance to the postseason. This will allow for three teams, each deserving, to make the playoffs. In the current AL East, for instance, the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees each deserve a playoff berth. Of course, in the current situation, one misses the cut each year. Home-field advantage for the World Series will be decided by the records of teams in the World Series against teams who had winning records. The playoff structure otherwise will be the same as last year.

The regular-season schedule format has been proposed before but mine has a slight variation: eighteen games within the team’s division, six games (a series at home and away) against everyone else in your league, and six games against each team in one division (rotating every year) in the other league. For all the DHs, so they can stay on rosters, there will now be thirty-man rosters and they will expand to 50 starting August 20th. This will allow for teams to get better and have longer looks at prospects. The year will end a week into October and start early-to-mid April. Playoffs will start two days after the regular season ends, and the World Series will end (assuming it goes to game seven) on November 4th.

Other miscellaneous things that will be fixed include a world-wide draft instead of a U.S.A. only draft, a limit of four pitching changes per game, and an extra change for every two innings in extra innings. That will speed the game up. There will be one challenge per game that will allow the manager to have instant replay to check an umpire’s call, but if the manager is wrong he loses a pitching change. There will also be no DH, to please all the baseball purists. You will now be allowed to trade draft picks to make trades more interesting.

Feb 25

Projecting Clayton Kershaw’s career.

2012: 19-4 263K 2.28
2013: 24-4 281K 2.27
2014: 26-3 321K 1.99
2015: 18-7 301K 2.09
2016: 14-3 221K 1.72 INJURY
2017: DOES NOT PLAY SURGERY
2018: 14-4 232K 2.41
2019: 15-9 213K 2.32
2020: 18-2 278K 2.22
2021: 23-7 316K 2.01
2022: 12-11 201K 2.55 BATTLING INJURIES
2023: 18-10 222K 2.78
2024: 14-11 202K 2.99
2025: 12-12 200K 3.21
2026: 14-12 209K 3.08
2027: 10-5 198K 3.41
2028: 11-3 188K 3.32
2029: 12-5 178K 3.67
2030: 17-4 222K 2.98
2031: 9-7 146K 3.71
2032: 11-12 132K 3.91
2033: 10-9 121K 3.99
Total: 368-151 5389K 2.80
Average: 14-5 202K 2.80

That would put Kershaw 5th all time on the win list. In modern day (since 1991) that would give him the best ERA. That would put him 2nd most strikeouts ever too. He would be the only player to get that high in ever stat. He would have the third best win-loss percentage ever.

Feb 07

What to expect from the Red Sox

How will the Red Sox fare this season after losing some key pieces?

The Sox offense should be fairly consistent even though it’s lost Scutaro and Reddick. Ross should a nice addition and will allow an old fashioned platoon when he faces lefties while Sweeney faces righties. Around the All-Star break, Kalish could take over the right field job. Ellsbury will have a good season but not one as great as the last. I expect 90RBIs, 110Runs, 20HRs, a .300AVG, and 40SBs. I expect Crawford to have a better year than last year. He should have similar stats everywhere except a .40 higher in average and OBP. He could also get thirty more SBs. One can only hope that Youkilis will be healthy enough to play 135 games. Sadly, I think he’ll only play 105 games — not enough time to amount to much. I expect Iglesias to grab the shortstop job . His great glove will make up for his weak bat. I expect him to be at least a contender for a gold glove. At 2nd base, I see more of the best coming from Pedroia. From Gonzalez, I expect regression in his batting average, after having an insane BABIP of .380. He will probably still hit over .300 but only by ten points. He will keep his RBI numbers, thanks to hitting 30+ long bombs. At catcher, I foresee a strong spring training performance by Lavarnway, which will earn him the back-up catcher spot. Meanwhile, I expect Saltalamacchia to have a breakout year in which he establishes himself as one of the game’s premier catchers. He will hit 25HRs and compliment it with a .280 average. Sadly, at the DH, I see major regression from Ortiz. He’ll be lucky to hit .275 and 20HRs.

The Sox’ pitching staff is in bad shape. They have a good top three but a bad four and five. I expect Lester to start opening day and have a Lester-like season of 16W-8L and a 3.10ERA. From Beckett, I expect regression but still a good year (3.80ERA 12Ws). I expect Buchholz to emerge as the Sox’ ace. He will have a year as good as 2010. Maybe 20W-6L, 240Ks, and a 2.50ERA en route to a Cy Young. I expect Bard to fail as a starter, which will put him back in the bullpen around the trading deadline. At that point, the Sox will trade three top prospects for Zack Greinke. He’ll earn a 102 million dollar, six year deal. I expect Padilla to win the 5th rotation spring training battle. He will go on to have a mediocre season. The Sox bullpen should be fairly solid, even without Papelbon. The additions of Bailey and Melancon should make up for Pap leaving.

The Sox will have a great season with a record of 94-68 en route to a play-off berth as a wildcard. They will beat the Yankees in the ALDS but lose to the Tigers in the ALCS.